Volatile month for the dollar and politics, but not for stocks: they are up almost 70%

The month ends on a high note for stock and bond savers The rise in the price of the free dollar only led to a 67% increase in July, and Adjustment of interest rates in the United States and Argentina. Incidents that have been impacted by profound cabinet changes in recent days, including the departure of former Economy Minister Silvina Batakis, less than a month after taking office.

In this changing scenario, the main index of major stocks, Marvel of Buenos Aires, up 43% in a full monthIt finally closed with a cumulative growth of 38.5% in July alone, adding 44.5% to the total in 2022.

summary, The rise in equities throughout the month, coupled with a 14% jump in the free dollar over the same period, allowed prices through the end of January to return to a level of profit similar to economic prices. June returns were virtually neutral,

Indeed, the cumulative rise in stock market prices during the first 7 months of the year, Only now they are all 2022. is equal to accumulated inflation in,

“Also, It was a good month for risk assets globally, Commodities fearing a recession caused investors to downplay the Fed’s rate hike prospects, believing inflation would rise. America will collapse without a deep recession,” says Paul RepettoResponsible for research at Aurum.

And he completes: “This vision If the inflation figure deteriorates in July, there may be a problem Higher than expected, but in the meantime there was a turn in risky assets at the end of June.

Major stocks had a strong month of July, with their prices mostly rising 30% to 67% for the month.

winning stocks and bonds

Shares of large companies soared as much as 67% in the month just ended, as was the case with Alur. Next come other newspapers such as Adenor (65%) and Central Puerto, with an increase of 52%.

The increase was also reflected in ADRs and equities Argentinian companies listed on Wall StreetBecause . the title of Adenore The dollar gained 37% in July. After Free market (28%), Porto center (27%) y supercity bankWith a growth of 26% in New York.

also in argentina “Take off” with a rise in bond prices which jumped 26% throughout the month, As was the case for peso-denominated inflation-linked government bonds (CER index) maturing in 2026 (TX26). The discount in peso (DICP) also increased by 21.4%.

this last number too debt securities rose in dollars Expires in 2030 (AL30) and 2035 (AL35).

“Bonds pay for political power, not resolution ability”of Mauro Mazza, Bull Market Portfolio Manager.

The rising dollar set the pace for Argentinian equities to rise in July.

market expectations

iProfessional has been able to consult with market analysts, according to whom measures will be announced in the coming weeks. The new “super” Minister of the Economy, Sergio Massa, It will be fundamental for them to know in which direction the market will go.

“This was the month when the countdown intensified. It is believed that the situation is no longer settled with the names or with the management, but take very ugly steps to harmonize the variables, a fact that lasts until July, due to a sharp rise in rates of 90% TEA, while the liabilities of the Central Bank double every 12 months, and that a monetary base is paid in interest every 6 months. “, warns. fun,

And he concludes: “It is independent of the entry of the dollar. It already has its own dynamic. We call it that The market is in a self-fulfilling prophecy, it means the consensus remains and the centrifugal force of the system is so strong that what the market believes eventually comes to an end. This is because stocks are completely out of control.

Regarding the recommendations for August, Mazza thinks: “We, in the current scenario, in the works, we only have San Miguel, Ternium Argentina, Aluar, Telecom and Molinos Agro. companies likeas well as companies associated with Sergio Massa, such as Adnor and PGR, Where is Manzano?

Moreover, at these dollar prices, this analyst indicates that he initiated “Look Again” at Cedar.

Currently, priority is given to exporting companies that invoice in dollars.

At present, preference is given to shares of exporting companies invoiced in dollars.

Meanwhile, Repetto, in general, supports the functions of Hedging against the exchange rate, such as stocks of exporting companies“The free dollar, so far, has more than offset the decline,” he says.

Until concrete steps are seen to add to this, “we don’t see that they have much to go down as they are already experienced.”

On the fixed income side, Mazaz says that “We make (current) marketable bonds in dollars only and, to a lesser extent, short-term effects in pesos (October and December)”-

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